Friday, January 18, 2008

South Carolina and Fred Thompson

I can’t wait to see what happens with the South Carolina Republican Primary on Saturday, January 19th. If Fred Thompson wins, the entire Republican field will, in all likelihood, slowly tumble into chaos. With Rudy likely winning Florida, each of the 5 major Republican candidates will have won a race, resulting in no clear frontrunner: Huckabee (Iowa), McCain (New Hampshire), Romney (Michigan), Thompson (South Carolina) and Giuliani (Florida).

Also, when Super Tuesday rolls around:

Every major Republican candidate’s home state will be voting, of which, each of the candidates are expected to win: Huckabee (Arkansas), McCain (Arizona), Romney (Massachusetts), Thompson (Tennessee), and Giuliani (New York).

For the rest of Super Tuesday:

Giuliani will do well in California because of a closed Republican primary. Due to the nature of the closed primary, independents will be unable to vote for McCain, the independent favorite. This would lead the independents to most likely flock to Barack Obama in the open Democratic Primary. Giuliani will probably also win New Jersey because of name recognition.

Huckabee, a former pastor of several Southern Baptist churches, would remain competitive in the Bible Belt.

Thompson, would give Huckabee a run for his money by picking up several delegates in the Southern States and the Bible Belt.

Romney would do well in the heavily Mormon state, Utah. He would also remain competitive in Connecticut, mainly due to name recognition from neighboring Massachusetts.

McCain, currently the frontrunner by about 10 points, will most likely take the rest of the February 5th states.

If all goes well and Fred Thompson wins South Carolina, there will be no clear nominee and the nomination will come down to the votes of the Superdelegates, making for a most exciting Republican National Convention in September.

I can't wait till Saturday.

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3 comments:

Patrick said...

I wish this would have happened!!! I want to see it continue to be interesting-- but alas, poor Fred threw in the towel. I just wish the Dems would just put the swords away and stick to what's important!! Am I alone in this?

January 22, 2008 at 9:40 PM
Unknown said...

Nope, I'm definitely with ya there Patrick. One of the things I had been impressed with by the Democratic debates and candidates has been their ability to keep the personal attacks to a minimum, something the Republicans haven't really bothered to even try to do at all, but right now it's like a boxing match, going tit-for-tat, and this is exactly what I think Americans are sick of. I know I am. You can disagree, debate, etc. without making it personal.
I wasn't completely surprised to hear the news about Fred Thompson. However, I admit that after thinking back a few months ago when Thompson was hailed to be the next Republican Candidate (The Savior of the Party) and McCain was thought to be at the end of the rope and soon to be dropping out after firing half of his staff, I was perplexed. It's amazing how quickly and often things have changed in this election campaign and its fun to see. I just wonder who's going to be next to drop out: Ron Paul?

January 23, 2008 at 12:52 AM
Docjay said...

My money is on Guiliani to drop out soon. He's not doing so well in Florida - where he thought he would easily win. The turnout for his rallies has been pathetic (staff and media outnumbering the votes - big surprise there). He is getting the support of Jon Voight - whoopee!

I agree Patrick - let's put down the swords and start making peace.

January 29, 2008 at 10:08 AM

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