Every four years people complain that voters under 30 are all talk. They like to get involved initially, but then get bored and often don't vote at all.
Prof. G-P and I are doing some research on this topic. What do you all think about this? Based on your newfound knowledge and the awareness of your friends, do you think more young people will vote this year? Is the Obama excitement working?
Please let us know your thoughts on this topic.
Thanks,
JM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
4 comments:
I think it is very true that young people, especially college students, like to get involved in politics initially, but then they get bored and often don’t vote at all at the end. Howard Dean’s campaign and Sen. Kerry’s 2004 presidential bid were classical examples of this case. When Gov. Dean’s army of young and enthusiastic supporters was defeated at Iowa back in 2004, they all ran away as fast as they could. Then, Sen. Kerry attempted to build a coalition of young voters to his campaign, and I thought it was pretty successful until the Election Day. Large majority of young people who suppose to vote for Sen. Kerry didn’t show up at all at the end, and I think President Bush actually got some benefit out of this situation. Threaten by young liberals’ attempt to remove President Bush, all the sudden, religious conservative young voters showed up on the Election Day, which helped the Republican Party in a great deal. So, I guess the trick is how to hold fired up young voters until the Election Day and make them to actually vote. Sen. Obama seems to have young voters in his column now, but I’m not really sure if they could help him to win the nomination. But the bigger concern that I have is that if Sen. Obama loses (D) nomination to Sen. Clinton, I think it’s very possible that all those enthusiastic young Obama supporters wouldn’t show up for the general election, which would be the great loss for the Democrats. I think I myself wouldn’t vote if Hilary get the nomination for the Democratic Party, but I’m not really sure if Sen. Obama could keep his army of first time young voters until November even if he wins the nomination. There’s very long way to go until November general election, and young people are often get bored or find something else to do very easily. I thought Sen. Kerry successfully carried young first time voters in his column until the summer of 2004, but by some reason, he lost most of young voters right after the DNC and they didn’t actually vote for him. For either Sen. Obama or Sen. Clinton, getting through his/her nomination speech at the DNC would be very difficult in terms of reuniting the party, and it would be even harder to carry all those young supporters from summer to first Tuesday of November. In this stage, I think it’s too early to call whether more young people would vote this election or not, but I think it’s really up to candidates whether they would invest their time and resource to motivate young to vote for them.
While youth voter turnout in the 2004 and 2006 elections were overly hyped and did not meet expectations, in both elections
the turnout increased from the 2000 and 2002 elections, which considering there had been a general decrease in youth voter turnout since the early 1970s should alone be indicative of greater youth participation. However, there is reason to believe this year's election is going to have even greater results for youth turnout.
At this year's Iowa Caucus, there was 3 times the youth turnout that there was in the 2004 caucus, with a total of 65,000 students participating. It also tripled in the South Carolina Primary for the Democratic Party. In the New Hampshire primaries, the youth turnout increased by 25%. It MORE than tripled in the Florida primaries for both parties, even though it was uncontested for Hillary Clinton, according to the New Voters Project! The youth are showing up and they are starting to make a difference. To see such a big increase in primary turnout for youth can only give us hope that youth vote in the general election in November is going to be a deciding factor of the election of the next President of the United States.
There's no denying Obama has a uniquely strong appeal to youth voters, especially among the Democrats and moderate/independents. But I think the fact that he has such adamant, active support from youth voters has, in turn, led to (or at least help catapult) increased voting turnout among young Republican voters.
Then, there's the Hillary factor. A Washington times "Anti-vote" poll said that 40% of Americans would turnout to vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton. I think that sort of mindset is applicable to the youth vote. Hillary is a very polarizing figure, like Bush, and those who love her are going to come out in droves to support her and those who hate her are going to come out to stop her.
Sam's point about the enthusiastic Obama supporters not voting for Hillary Clinton is valid, but I think pending the Republican nomination those Democratic youth will still turnout. People want policy changes. This isn't just about loving or hating a candidate (though, for the primary especially, it is a factor). You have kids sick of the war, sick of the economic troubles, worried about future jobs. You have youth passionate and optimistic about the way things are going and want a similar President to Bush. Hillary winning the nomination might decrease the youth Democratic turnout, but I can almost guarantee you it will increase the independent/Republican youth turnout dramatically.
Whatever the reasons, youth turnout for the 2008 primaries has dramatically increased from the 2004 primaries and that cannot be ignored. Primaries usually have a fairly low turnout in general, but this election has been exciting and different and there have been results and the youth voting turnout increase is going to sustain until the general election.
Based on conversations with different people at work, gym, school, friends, etc., I definitely see more young people voting this year. I think we can attribute the increase of interest in the young adult community to two reasons: First is the large number of American’s disapproval on US invasion of Iraq. People of all ages care about the American soldiers and bringing the war to an end; this is an even interest among all Americans regardless of age. Second, I think is the diversity of candidates. Different groups of young people feel that they have been given the first opportunity in American history to choose a candidate of their choice and are not limited to the typical same gender/race candidates from both parties.
I think this is a great question, and there's a lot of truth to it. I am even finding myself now, not as fired up as I was before. (I think it can be attributed to the outcome of the results lately!!) But, in my experience up here at school, at my internship in Washington, and even at home, there is still a dialog and everyone has their opinions.
Based on the discussions I have had, it seems that part of the passion of the younger people is they are basically pissed at how their country is being run. Some of the common themes are the failing war, the struggling economy, the housing crisis, and the way we are viewed on the world stage. Even my uncle who is 52 years old is trying to become a legal Greek citizen because he is beginning to feel uncomfortable calling himself an American when he travels abroad.
It's sad that people have to become so mad at how bad things are in order to get passionate, but that is what's happened. There is also interest in their candidates of choice (the die-hard Obama, Clinton, McCain, etc.. supporters are never afraid to talk about their candidate), but there is also (unfortunately) people who are getting involved so that a person DOES NOT win. I don't think that's right, but one can hope it leads to a more positive discussion!
Post a Comment