Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Welcome to "On the Campaign Trail"
This is the place where we will keep everyone posted on what we see while on our journey. We depart on Wed. Jan. 2, 2008 for Concord, NH. Our goal, to see as many candidates as possible -- to observe, participate and learn - to deepen our understanding of the campaign process. We are students and faculty from George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. We are diverse - politically, racially, and ethnically. Some of us love politics, others are just learning. Together, we are a group of people who want to see for ourselves the power of the political process.
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Going Out On A Limb . . .
Janette, Lisa and all . . .
It was a real pleasure meeting you. In your class in political communication, you will no doubt continue to learn about the importance of ideas and of a candidate or group's message -- their way of persuasively communicating their ideas to others.
But you all have now had a wonderful experience of observing and participating in a key election up close. I'm sure you'll agree it is very different from viewing it from a distance, or reading about it!
If there has been one thing that I see about this election that differs from many others, it is the last-second fluidity of voter opinion. Maybe part of that is that none of this year's candidates are incumbents, or even a sitting vice president who can be judged by a record.
Having talked to store clerks, hotel employees, waitresses and waiters, small business owners and others, or even listening to Frank Luntz's focus group coverage on Monday night (last night), it seems to me that going right into election day, there were still a large number of folks here who had simply not made up their minds how they were going to vote.
Consider these exchanges between Luntz and several members of his focus group, as broadcast on Hannity & Colmes last night:
LUNTZ: How many of you have gotten a lot of phone calls from the various candidates? How many have gotten too many phone calls from the various candidates? Did anyone get a phone call after 11:00 p.m.? Nobody. So at least they're intelligent.
Who are you deciding between, Allison?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Romney and McCain.
LUNTZ: Romney and McCain, what's going to make your decision up?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't know. I'm still undecided.
LUNTZ: How can you be undecided this late?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Issues, I'm just not 100 percent.
LUNTZ: What are you waiting for?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Tomorrow.
LUNTZ: What's going to make your decision up?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm not sure.
LUNTZ: Who else has not decided yet? What are you waiting for?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm undecided because this morning I had decided and changed my mind on my way to work.
LUNTZ: Why?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Someone told me John McCain was too old to run that country. I don't necessarily agree, but someone else supported that when I got to work, so it seems to be an ongoing issue.
LUNTZ: Who else is still undecided? What's going to make your mind up?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I've narrowed it down to Romney or McCain, and the reason is that I can't make up my mind. I'm not sure about illegal immigrants or the health care.
And, consider, if you will, the variations from poll to poll as posted on the Real Clear Politics website.
On the Democrat side, for example, Reuters/C-Span/Zogby shows Obama up by 13 points.
As of yesterday, the Suffolk (University) WHDH poll, had Obama only up by 1. But their tracking poll today, has him up by 5 points. No very recent polls show Clinton winning, and the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average is Obama + 8.3.
In the Suffolk poll,Fully 3/4 (74%) of Democratic voters said it was unlikely they would change their minds before voting. That is surprising in light of the significant shift away from Hillary and toward Obama in the past several days.
And in the Republican race polls vary by as much as 13 points! Zogby, for example shows McCain up by 9 points, and they believe they see a big swing that way only in the past few days. Rasmussen, on the other hand, believes that there is a virtual deadlock -- a 32 - 31 race, or a 1 point race going into today.
The Suffolk (University) WHDH poll sees Romney in the lead by 4 points! And if you look at Suffolk's decided/undecided results, only 2/3 of voters (67%) were unlikely to change their vote.
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, as you can see, is McCain by 3.6 points.
Again, it all seems to me to be very, very fluid. So, which way will it flow?
My sense is that the Republican vote will very much be determined by the level of participation of the independent vote.
A higher percentage of the Independents who opt to vote in the Republican primary, may be more likely to vote for McCain -- much as they did in 2000. But if fewer independents vote in the Republican primary, and opt instead to vote in the Democrat primary, i.e., for Obama or even Edwards, that will likely help Romney significantly.
In other words, I don't think Zogby can be correct for BOTH races -- either many independents will abandon McCain to some extent and go over to vote for Obama or Edwards, or McCain will hold them and Obama will not have anywhere near as big a win as Zogby predicts.
My guess is that Obama will be a big winner, and that the McCain/Romney race will be very, very close.
Again, nice meeting you all and have a great trip home.
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